Supply Shortages Fueled by Americans' Spending Spree

底特律(美联社)——从被挑选过的商店货架上退一步, the stalled container ships and the empty auto showrooms, 你会发现几乎所有东西短缺的根本原因.

Even as the pandemic has dragged on, U.S. households flush with cash from stimulus checks, 繁荣的股票市场和扩大的房屋净值让人感觉又可以自由消费了——而且是大量消费. And since consumer demand drives much of the U.S. 在全球经济中，高需求给美国带来了商品短缺.S. and much of the world.

再加上企业订购和囤积的商品和零部件超过了它们的需求，这样它们就不会用完, 最终，几乎无法抑制的需求放大了供应短缺.

这就出现了一个大问题:被压抑的消费在经济衰退后迅速飙升，让供应商措手不及，只要需求保持强劲，他们就不太可能赶上. That’s especially so because Americans, still hunkered down at home more than they did before the pandemic, continue to spend more on goods — electronics, furniture, appliances, sporting goods — than on services like hotels, meals out and movie tickets. All that demand for goods, in turn, is helping to accelerate U.S. inflation.

除非支出迅速回到服务业，或者有其他原因导致人们停止购买这么多东西，否则全球供应链可能要到2022年甚至2023年才能恢复正常.

“Demand is completely skewed,” said Bindiya Vakil, CEO of Resilinc, a consulting firm that helps companies manage supply chains. “This has now become more and more painful by the day.”

人们可能最终停止这么多消费的一个原因是，现在所有东西都涨价了. Consumer prices in the U.S. skyrocketed 6.2% over the past year as food, gasoline, 汽车和住房将通胀推高至1990年以来的最高水平. 万有引力定律表明，如此严重的通货膨胀的累积效应最终会抑制消费.

For now, though, 制造商预计，需求旺盛的局面不会结束，陷入困境的供应链和不断飙升的通胀压力也不会结束. A chronic lack of computer chips has forced Ford Motor Co., for instance, 改进从订货到交货需要较长时间的零件订购系统，以解决短缺问题.

“这突出表明，在汽车行业盛行的‘准时制’运营模式可能不是正确的运营模式,” Hau Thai-Tang, Ford’s chief operations and product officer, told analysts.

Smaller companies, too, 是否觉得有必要尽可能多地增加供应，这样他们才能继续生产产品. Moriarty’s Gem Art near Chicago, a family business for 40 years, has been stocking up on gold, silver and platinum to make necklaces and rings, desperate not to run out of supplies as holiday orders pick up.

“为了以防万一，我们订了比实际数量多得多的货,” said Jeff Moriarty, the marketing manager.

Even a normal post-holiday shopping lull, though it might help, isn’t expected to be enough to unclog ports, 加快航运或允许工厂补充库存.

“改善的基线预期是在2022年中期左右，”美国经济研究所(u.s. economic institute)首席执行官奥伦•克拉奇金(Oren Klachkin)表示.S. economist for Oxford Economics. “But I think the risks of that happening later are fairly high.”

Though Americans have increasingly ventured out in recent months, the balance between spending on goods and services remains skewed. 经济复苏后被压抑的需求仍然倾向于家具和汽车等商品，而不是理发, concerts and restaurant meals. 尽管近几个月来服务业支出有所增长，但还远远不足以弥补这一差距.

Since April 2020, consumer spending on goods has jumped 32%. 现在比2020年2月(就在疫情使经济陷入瘫痪之前)的水平高出15%. 目前，商品约占消费者支出的40%，高于疫情前的36%.

U.S. factories have tried mightily to keep up with demand. Production rose nearly 5% over the past year, according to the Federal Reserve, despite periodic ups and downs, including disruptions to auto production caused by chip shortages.

进口缩小了美国消费者需求与美国工厂生产能力之间的差距. From January through September this year, the U.S. imported 23% more than in the same period in 2020. In September, thanks to surging imports, the U.S. 货物贸易逆差创历史新高:进口比出口多98美元.2 billion.

随着富裕国家越来越多的人接种疫苗，对商品的贪婪需求也在加速. Yet in poorer countries, especially in Southeast Asia, 最近几个月，德尔塔病毒的蔓延迫使新工厂关闭，并再次扰乱了供应链. Only recently did it start to recover.

At the same time, many U.S. 工人们已经决定辞去那些需要经常与公众接触的工作. 这造成了装卸船只、运输货物或零售店员工短缺.

Ports clogged up. Last month, 65艘船在加州海岸外的洛杉矶港和长滩港等待卸货，这是两周的工作量. The average wait: 12 days. That has since worsened to 78 ships, with an average wait of nearly 17 days, despite around-the-clock port operations beginning in October.

Before the pandemic, 船只已经设定了到达时间，直接到泊位卸货, said Gene Seroka, the L.A. port’s executive director. 现在，随着亚洲工厂的产量达到历史新高，该港口的货物吞吐量也创下了历史新高. Yet it’s not enough to meet the demand.

Seroka doesn’t foresee the shipments easing even next year. 零售商告诉他，他们计划利用销售放缓的1月和2月——如果这两个月的销售确实放缓的话——来补充库存.

As with ports, rail lines are moving more goods. 到11月初，美国铁路货运增长了7%.5% from a year ago. Truck shipments were up 1.7% in September. Yet there aren't enough drivers or trucks to move all the freight.

In China, too, manufacturers are struggling with shipping delays, container shortages and cost increases. Shantou Limei International Ltd., which makes children’s toys in the city of Shantou, 由于延迟交货和运费上涨，预计今年的销售额将下降30%.

“对我们来说，最严重的问题是无法按时交货，因为很难获得货运集装箱," said Frank Xie, the company's general manager. “A lot of things have gone beyond our controls and expectation.”

Philip Richardson, an American who manufactures loudspeakers in Panyu, near Hong Kong, said orders have increased 400%. A key reason is increased demand from Americans and Europeans, who have gone on a home electronics buying spree. The price to ship goods to U.S. 与此同时，一个40英尺的集装箱的客户在7月份增加了两倍多.

理查森说:“客户要么承受，要么减少订单。.

手拉手电器科技有限公司老板宋文杰., a manufacturer of home appliances in Jiaxing, south of Shanghai, 他说，飞涨的货物价格使一些货物的运输无利可图.

“停电和航运延误的结合可能导致今年的产量下降20%, Song said.

在与混乱的供应链作斗争的欧洲公司中，Shoe Zone就是其中之一, a British retailer that sources most of its footwear from China. 船运集装箱价格在12个月内至少上涨了5倍, said Anthony Smith, the chief executive.

“这将继续影响我们至少6个月，直到整个供应链的问题恢复到更合理的水平。,” he said.